Moscow - Off the Map?
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The National Intelligence Council (NIC), the U.S. Intelligence Community's center for long range forecasting, has just released its look into the next 15 years, Mapping the Global Future.
Relegated to the status of an aging power, the Russian Federation occupies the role of an essentially global "has-been:" an important oil producer with a dwindling, increasingly elderly population, in the words of the NIC report, an "important, if troubled, partner" for "established" powers as the United States and "rising" nations as China and India - a partner, but no leader. Nothing could be further from the truth, and the U.S. miscalculates Moscow's capabilities at its own national peril.
Moscow not only is a leader in world affairs, but also supports every nation hostile to the U.S., but the Moscow elite is controlled by the very intelligence services which are supposed to serve the state - not dominate it.
CIA report downplays Russia's role, and forecasts a rising Asia power
The Russian government, led by ex-KGB spymaster Vladimir Putin, consistently aids nations seeking to undermine the U.S. and democratic values from North Korea to Iran. Moscow is the prime weapons, technology, and training supplier for Communist China's military build-up.
Without Russian assistance, the missile and nuclear advances by North Korea and Iran would have been impossible. China would not be able to challenge the U.S. in the vital shipping lanes of Asia and in the Pacific. An invasion from China against the democratically ruled island of Taiwan would also be beyond Beijing's grasp.
The Moscow elite which advances this anti-Western, anti-American foreign policy is the same ruling class which seeks to learn from the "mistakes" and revive what was "good" from the Soviet past, resulting in a new, more powerful Socialist/Communist State.
Although frustrated by freedom-loving groups in Ukraine, Georgia, and Romania, Moscow is finding success in advancing its interests not only in Asia, but also in Latin America, aiding the Marxist regime of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, the leading nation of the South American region, Brazil, and Russia's decades-long ally, Cuba.
How far Moscow can advance its program remains unclear, but the shocking truth is that, in the words of prominent dissident Elena Bonner, "Russia is under the control of the KGB." Bonner's remarks, made only a few weeks ago, will be examined in our next article.
The implications of the strategy of the Moscow elite for Russia, the United States, and the world are profound - and dangerous.
Posted January 20, 2005
Toby Westerman publishes
International News Analysis - Today
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